Friday, February 25, 2011

Oscar Predictions - 2011

It's that time of year again: when all the movies I want to win awards, don't. Ok, some of the time the movies/actors I like win, but mostly not. This year I'm pretty certain my favorites aren't going to win, but unlike some years, there are a lot of good nominees that I wouldn't mind winning as well. I highlighted the movies I've seen in blue. For a full list of movies I've reviewed, click here. On with the predictions:
UPDATED: I updated the highlighting on movies I've seen. Also noted who actually won.

xWho won
*Who I think will win
^Who I wish would win
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Academy always seems to pick movies like "The King's Speech" and I've heard it's fantastic, but I simply enjoy Inception too much to pick anything else.

127 Hours (2010): Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, John Smithson
Black Swan (2010): Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin
The Fighter (2010): David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
^Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
The Kids Are All Right (2010): Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
X*The King's Speech (2010): Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
The Social Network (2010): Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Ceán Chaffin
Toy Story 3 (2010): Darla K. Anderson
True Grit (2010): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
Winter's Bone (2010): Anne Rosellini, Alix Madigan

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
I've seen 2 of the 5. Colin Firth has been unstoppable at every other award show.

Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)
Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)
X*Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)
James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
I like Natalie Portman, and she too has been unstoppable at the other award shows, so I'd like to see her win.

Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone (2010)
X*Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale deserves some Oscar recognition. Haven't seen this yet, but I've heard good things.

X*Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)
John Hawkes for Winter's Bone (2010)
Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech (2010)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Same deal as every other acting award, all runaways (supposedly). But, Hailee Steinfeld deserves
some recognition ESPECIALLY (but not solely) since it is her first big role.

Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)
Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech (2010)
X*Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)
^Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)
Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)

Best Achievement in Directing
In reality, I think Christopher Nolan deserves this for Inception. But, Fincher is a great director. That being said, I think "True Grit" really shows how great the Coen brothers are at tackling genre filmmaking.

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan (2010)
^Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit (2010)
*David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)
XTom Hooper for The King's Speech (2010)
David O. Russell for The Fighter (2010)

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
"Inception" deserves to win for it's originality. Even though it's not based on a book, "The King's Speech" is still based on true events, so that takes it down a bit for me.

Another Year (2010): Mike Leigh
The Fighter (2010): Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington
^Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right (2010): Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
X*The King's Speech (2010): David Seidler

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
I'd definitely say that if you can write a screenplay based on the founding of a social networking site and make it work, that's some pretty good writing.

127 Hours (2010): Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
X*The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 (2010): Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich
True Grit (2010): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone (2010): Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Pixar is in their own league when it comes to animation. This year did see a lot of very good competition, but it still wasn't a contest.

How to Train Your Dragon (2010): Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders
The Illusionist (2010): Sylvain Chomet
X*Toy Story 3 (2010): Lee Unkrich

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Haven't seen any of these, just kind of went with a guess based on buzz I've heard.

Biutiful (2010): Alejandro González Iñárritu(Mexico)
*Dogtooth (2009): Giorgos Lanthimos(Greece)
XIn a Better World (2010): Susanne Bier(Denmark)
Incendies (2010): Denis Villeneuve(Canada)
Outside the Law (2010): Rachid Bouchareb(Algeria)

Best Achievement in Cinematography
This was a tough one. "Inception" has amazing cinematography, but so does "True Grit." In the end, I went with my gut.

Black Swan (2010): Matthew Libatique
X*Inception (2010): Wally Pfister
The King's Speech (2010): Danny Cohen
The Social Network (2010): Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit (2010): Roger Deakins

Best Achievement in Editing
"The Social Network" was a very clean, well put together movie (and the only one I saw off this list).

127 Hours (2010): Jon Harris
Black Swan (2010): Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter (2010): Pamela Martin
The King's Speech (2010): Tariq Anwar
X*The Social Network (2010): Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

Best Achievement in Art Direction
"Inception" is simply visually stunning.

XAlice in Wonderland (2010): Robert Stromberg, Karen O'Hara
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan
*Inception (2010): Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat
The King's Speech (2010): Eve Stewart, Judy Farr
True Grit (2010): Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh

Best Achievement in Costume Design
"Alice in Wonderland" has fantastically over-the-top costumes. But "True Grit" has some great, gritty (yes, I went there) western duds.

X*Alice in Wonderland (2010): Colleen Atwood
I Am Love (2009): Antonella Cannarozzi
The King's Speech (2010): Jenny Beavan
The Tempest (2010/II): Sandy Powell
^True Grit (2010): Mary Zophres

Best Achievement in Makeup
They actually did use makeup effects (and some CGI) for "The Wolfman," which was kind of a nice touch considering the original.

Barney's Version (2010): Adrien Morot
The Way Back (2010): Edouard F. Henriques, Greg Funk, Yolanda Toussieng
X*The Wolfman (2010): Rick Baker, Dave Elsey

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Everyone seems to love Reznor and Ross' soundtrack. I enjoyed it, but wasn't completely wowed. Inception, however, was Zimmer's grandest soundtrack in awhile.

127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon (2010): John Powell
^Inception (2010): Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech (2010): Alexandre Desplat
X*The Social Network (2010): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Haven't really heard any of these. Randy Newman always sounds the same to me, so I ruled out the one movie I've seen. 127 Hours won at another award show, but lost to the not nominated "Burlesque" at the Golden Globes.

*127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman, , Dido("If I Rise")
Country Strong (2010): Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges("Coming Home")
Tangled (2010): Alan Menken, Glenn Slater("I See the Light")
XToy Story 3 (2010): Randy Newman("We Belong Together")

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
"Inception" is just one of those movies that isn't fully experienced unless it's in digital surround sound.

X*Inception (2010): Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick
The King's Speech (2010): Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen, John Midgley
Salt (2010): Jeffrey J. Haboush, William Sarokin, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell
The Social Network (2010): Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Mark Weingarten
True Grit (2010): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
I'm not such an expert that I can explain the specific differences between mixing and editing.

X*Inception (2010): Richard King
Toy Story 3 (2010): Tom Myers, Michael Silvers
TRON: Legacy (2010): Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Addison Teague
True Grit (2010): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey
Unstoppable (2010): Mark P. Stoeckinger

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
All have very good effects, but Inception's are more subtle and realistic.

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas, Sean Phillips
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010): Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz, Nicolas Aithadi
Hereafter (2010): Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky, Joe Farrell
X*Inception (2010): Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man 2 (2010): Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright, Daniel Sudick

Best Documentary, Features
I think "Exit..." but I'm not 100% sure since the Academy seems worried about what Banksy might do...

*Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010): Banksy, Jaimie D'Cruz
GasLand (2010): Josh Fox, Trish Adlesic
XInside Job (2010): Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs
Restrepo (2010): Tim Hetherington, Sebastian Junger
Waste Land (2010): Lucy Walker, Angus Aynsley

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Complete guess.

Killing in the Name (2010): Jed Rothstein
Poster Girl (2010): Sara Nesson, Mitchell Block
XStrangers No More (2010): Karen Goodman, Kirk Simon
Sun Come Up (2010): Jennifer Redfearn, Tim Metzger
*The Warriors of Qiugang (2010): Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon

Best Short Film, Animated
Mostly a guess, but it's the Pixar short, so it should be a good guess.

*Day & Night (2010): Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo (2009) (TV): Jakob Schuh, Max Lang
Let's Pollute (2011): Geefwee Boedoe
XThe Lost Thing (2010): Shaun Tan, Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, a Journey Diary (2010): Bastien Dubois

Best Short Film, Live Action
Complete and total guess.

The Confession (2010/IV): Tanel Toom
The Crush (2010): Michael Creagh
X*God of Love (2010): Luke Matheny
Na Wewe (2010): Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 (2009): Ian Barnes, Samantha Waite

List gathered from IMDb

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